Chinese aspirations push Americans to provoke conflicts

 Almaty. September 24. KazTAG- Amir Arynov. Thinking about the Central Asian Security threats, analyzing the current events in the region or assessing future developments, we often forget about the geopolitical tendencies, capable of providing the answers to arising questions about contemporary problems. Therefore, the obvious process of destabilization in Central Asia should be  considered not only at the regional level of analysis, but also at a Global one, where China has started a geopolitical game Chinese aspirations push Americans to provoke conflicts

 I share the opinion of H. Pant from Royal College of London that the idea of great power is utterly linked expansionism. This recently born concept has turned into concrete aims in the Chinese Society. The contemporary foreign policy of China stands for expansionism. China is mentally prepared to become a new empire.

 There are no geopolitical cases, where the interests of China would not collide with the interests of its main rival, the US. Both sides are fighting to spread their soft power, which can be formulated as protection of the believe in exceptionalism  of their nations. Chinese people act as new world conquerors, while Americans act as rescuers without consulting any one else.

 Deriving from this hypothesis, it makes sense to consider the Central Asian politics within the scope  of escalating     power struggle between the US and China on the international arena.

 The US Defense Ministry has recently published a report on modernization of Chinese military forces. The report authors came to the conclusion that China seeks to satisfy its energy demand first of all by importing from the Persian gulf and Africa. That is how American researchers  explain the Chinese military build up in Indian Ocean.

The subsequent document is interesting in its precise determination of the US-China Cold War front line. It goes along the zero meridian  Indian Ocean, Middle Eastor South Asia, and Central Asia. The Indian Ocean has 3 critical points of strategic importance from the trade and energy routes security standpoint. Bab-el-Mandeb, Hormuz, and Malacca straits are the key Chinese sea transport corridors. As of today, China still relies on other states in terms of security of these straits.

First of all, it relies on the USA, which is responsible for the strait of Aden Security(which is considered as Bab-el-Mandeb strait within the context) and in Persian Gulf(or strait of Hormuz). The Malacca strait security is generally maintained by the Indonesian and Malaysian marine forces.

However, the Chinese economic interests dictate certain military and political moves necessary for the strengthening for its geopolitical presence in strategically important regions. We can observe two major developments. This is the creation of the conceptually new in terms of its role military fleet on the one hand, and strengthening of political and economic ties with the countries to pursue its strategic goals on the other.

As mass media reports, China is currently modernising its military fleet, devoting special attention to the creation of aircraft carriers, which illustrates China's plans to actively protect its interests at the remote sea locations, where the Indian Ocean becomes a destination point.

The creation of sea military bases is the logical continuation of the Chinese infiltration into the region, which is certainly the subject of concerns for the US. The prospect of Indian Ocean becoming a Chinese zone of influence does not flatter New Delhi either. One can currently observe the arms race with military build up, observation points construction, operational escalation, and ship supplies, between India and China. The US is obviously supporting India in this race. Washington has particularly activated its military cooperation with India this year. The major threat of such a move for the US  is possible negative reaction on Washington-New Delhi cooperation from the side of Pakistan and consequent worsening of bilateral relations with Pakistan. The possibility of the Indian-Chinese conflict provocation by the US cannot be ruled out, while the relationship between two countries are already highly tense and competitive.

The analysis of the ongoing South Asian processes gives impression that Islamabad has recently started moving towards Beijing, which considers Pakistan as important for its access to Persian Golf energy resources. The construction of the Gwadar port and of Karakoram highway connecting Chinese city of Kashgar with Pakistan's Gwadar are among the most important China and Pakistan joint projects of great geopolitical significance. It is a political and economic key to the strait of Hormuz.  This port can potentially turn into a logistic centre which would be a transit point for the energy going to China. Furthermore, the control over Gwadar would allow China to be constantly aware of the situation in the Eastern part of the Indian Ocean, which is the objective reason for the US and Indian concerns. As for the media reports about planned construction of Chinese military base there, it turned these concerns to panic.

The strengthening of the Chinese-Pakistan Relations, which can lead to full-scale military cooperation, up to stationing Chinese military fleet at Gwadar, multiplied  by the Chinese-Iranian relations, is the rationale behind the Washington policies in the region. This s pressuring Iran with war threats. This is bi-friending India to escalate New Delhi's tensions with Beijing and Islamabad. This is an increasing criticism of Pakistan's poor efforts in terms of War on Terrorism.

There is an opinion, voiced by the talib website Voice of Jihad that the Moshtarak NATO operation, aimed at gaining control over Afghanistan Marja in the Helmand Province was conducted to provide the foundation to the later American access to the Gwadar in Pakistan. This seems rather logical, while assessing why NATO chose such a small village for attacking the  taliban.

Furthermore, it is worth keeping in mind that Gwadar is located in Belujistan, which American strategists see as the possible territory of the new state, which would unite Beluji people from Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, in case of various geopolitical developments.  The possibility of Washington's backing of Belujistan independence cannot be ruled out in case of war with Iranand full-scale destabilization of Pakistan. There are guerillas, which are currently fighting for the Belujistan independence, in Iran and Pakistan. If the US is to support Belujistan, they will be able to cut off Chinese access to the Persian gulf.

Generally speaking, Washington might be interested in keeping Afghanistan and Pakistan destabilized, as it disrupts Chinese energy security efforts The political chaos and possible collapse of Pakistan as a state with its current boundaries, will allow the US to strengthen its presence in the region, and possibly even to raise the question of deprivation  of Islamad's control over its nuclear power, which would please India.

Yet, Washington's effort to limit Chinese aspirations by provoking terrorist threats and separatism in Pakistan and by bi-friending India in Indian Ocean, is not quite enough to stop China on its way to Persian Gulf.

Central Asia is to become the US cork, which would prevent China from accessing the Persian Gulf. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are the important transit territories that connect China to Iran. This transit could become the last option for Beijing in case their Sea strategy is to fail.

It is obvious, that the easiest way to keep Chinaa way from Central Asia is to provoke Ferghana Valley destabilization on the ethnic and religious grounds. Especially considering that the US is sure that any attempt to westernise or democratise Central Asia is doomed to fail. The colour revolution ideas are not blooming here. The recent Kyrgyzstan events may easily be the points of the Washington strategy against Beijing's superpower aspirations. 

As long as Somali and Asian pirates, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan guerillas exist, as long as conflicts stretching from Central Asia to Indian Ocean are still in place, China will not be able to dismiss the US from its international position. Having created such a buffer against China, America, allied with Israel and its Arab partners, will be able to take control over Iranian situation, thus, killing China's aspirations for good.